Expert political judgment: how good is it? how can we know?
Auteur :
Tetlock, Philip E.
Éditeur :
Princeton University Press
ISBN :
9780691128719
Date de publication :
31 juil. 2006
Dimensions :
23,5 x 15,2 cm
Poids :
482 g
Format :
Trade paperback (US)
Langue :
Anglais
Pays d'origine :
USA
The intelligence failures surrounding the invasion of Iraq dramatically illustrate the necessity of developing standards for evaluating expert opinion. This book fills that need. It explores what constitutes good judgment in predicting future events, and looks at why experts are often wrong in their forecasts.